Balticon (Poland) Market Value
| BLT Stock | 13.40 0.50 3.60% |
| Symbol | Balticon |
Balticon 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Balticon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Balticon.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Balticon on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Balticon or generate 0.0% return on investment in Balticon over 720 days.
Balticon Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Balticon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Balticon upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0332 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.86 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.62 |
Balticon Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Balticon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Balticon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Balticon historical prices to predict the future Balticon's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0581 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1865 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0372 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4485 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Balticon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Balticon Backtested Returns
Balticon appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Balticon secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0841, which signifies that the company had a 0.0841% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Balticon, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Balticon's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0581, downside deviation of 3.62, and Mean Deviation of 2.53 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Balticon holds a performance score of 6. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Balticon's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Balticon is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Balticon's total risk alpha, expected short fall, market facilitation index, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Balticon's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.16 |
Very weak predictability
Balticon has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Balticon time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Balticon price movement. The serial correlation of 0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Balticon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.64 |
Balticon lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Balticon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Balticon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Balticon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Balticon has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Balticon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Balticon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Balticon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Balticon stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Balticon Lagged Returns
When evaluating Balticon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Balticon stock have on its future price. Balticon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Balticon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Balticon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Balticon.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Balticon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Balticon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Balticon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Balticon Stock
| 0.64 | UCG | UniCredit SpA | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | DNP | Dino Polska SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Balticon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Balticon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Balticon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Balticon to buy it.
The correlation of Balticon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Balticon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Balticon moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Balticon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Balticon Stock Analysis
When running Balticon's price analysis, check to measure Balticon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Balticon is operating at the current time. Most of Balticon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Balticon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Balticon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Balticon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.