Garuda Metalindo (Indonesia) Market Value
| BOLT Stock | IDR 1,155 25.00 2.12% |
| Symbol | Garuda |
Garuda Metalindo 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Garuda Metalindo's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Garuda Metalindo.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Garuda Metalindo on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Garuda Metalindo Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Garuda Metalindo over 30 days. Garuda Metalindo is related to or competes with Indo Kordsa, Indospring Tbk, Kabelindo Murni, Blue Bird, and Bintang Oto. PT Garuda Metalindo Tbk manufactures and sells precision fasteners and engineered components primarily for the automotiv... More
Garuda Metalindo Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Garuda Metalindo's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Garuda Metalindo Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1133 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.15) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.14 |
Garuda Metalindo Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Garuda Metalindo's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Garuda Metalindo's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Garuda Metalindo historical prices to predict the future Garuda Metalindo's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1505 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.315 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0481 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0883 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (6.35) |
Garuda Metalindo Tbk Backtested Returns
Garuda Metalindo appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Garuda Metalindo Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.14, which attests that the entity had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Garuda Metalindo Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Garuda Metalindo's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (6.34), downside deviation of 2.16, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1505 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Garuda Metalindo holds a performance score of 11. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0487, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Garuda Metalindo are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Garuda Metalindo is likely to outperform the market. Please check Garuda Metalindo's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Garuda Metalindo's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
Garuda Metalindo Tbk has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Garuda Metalindo time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Garuda Metalindo Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Garuda Metalindo price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1140.08 |
Garuda Metalindo Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Garuda Metalindo stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Garuda Metalindo's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Garuda Metalindo returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Garuda Metalindo has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Garuda Metalindo regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Garuda Metalindo stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Garuda Metalindo stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Garuda Metalindo stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Garuda Metalindo Lagged Returns
When evaluating Garuda Metalindo's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Garuda Metalindo stock have on its future price. Garuda Metalindo autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Garuda Metalindo autocorrelation shows the relationship between Garuda Metalindo stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Garuda Metalindo Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Garuda Metalindo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Garuda Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Garuda with respect to the benefits of owning Garuda Metalindo security.