BRR Guardian (Pakistan) Market Value
| BRRG Stock | 15.94 0.04 0.25% |
| Symbol | BRR |
BRR Guardian 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to BRR Guardian's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of BRR Guardian.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in BRR Guardian on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding BRR Guardian or generate 0.0% return on investment in BRR Guardian over 720 days.
BRR Guardian Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure BRR Guardian's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess BRR Guardian upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.37 |
BRR Guardian Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for BRR Guardian's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as BRR Guardian's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use BRR Guardian historical prices to predict the future BRR Guardian's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0282 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0921 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 4.79 |
BRR Guardian Backtested Returns
At this point, BRR Guardian is somewhat reliable. BRR Guardian secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0092, which signifies that the company had a 0.0092% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for BRR Guardian, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm BRR Guardian's mean deviation of 2.92, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0282 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0331%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0197, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, BRR Guardian's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding BRR Guardian is expected to be smaller as well. BRR Guardian currently shows a risk of 3.61%. Please confirm BRR Guardian sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if BRR Guardian will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
BRR Guardian has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BRR Guardian time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BRR Guardian price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current BRR Guardian price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.76 |
BRR Guardian lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is BRR Guardian stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting BRR Guardian's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of BRR Guardian returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that BRR Guardian has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
BRR Guardian regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If BRR Guardian stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if BRR Guardian stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in BRR Guardian stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
BRR Guardian Lagged Returns
When evaluating BRR Guardian's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of BRR Guardian stock have on its future price. BRR Guardian autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, BRR Guardian autocorrelation shows the relationship between BRR Guardian stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in BRR Guardian.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with BRR Guardian
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BRR Guardian position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BRR Guardian will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to BRR Guardian could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BRR Guardian when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BRR Guardian - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BRR Guardian to buy it.
The correlation of BRR Guardian is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BRR Guardian moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BRR Guardian moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BRR Guardian can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.