The National Tax Free Fund Market Value
| CFNLX Fund | USD 18.70 0.04 0.21% |
| Symbol | THE |
The National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to The National's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of The National.
| 01/06/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in The National on January 6, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The National Tax Free or generate 0.0% return on investment in The National over 690 days. The National is related to or competes with The Missouri, The Bond, High-yield Municipal, Fidelity Intermediate, and Sit Tax-free. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in municipa... More
The National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure The National's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The National Tax Free upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2746 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.64) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.32) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2154 |
The National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for The National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as The National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use The National historical prices to predict the future The National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0025 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.45) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0826 |
National Tax Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider THE Mutual Fund to be very steady. National Tax owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0264, which indicates the fund had a 0.0264% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for The National Tax Free, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate The National's Semi Deviation of 0.1852, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Coefficient Of Variation of 4586.25 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0052%. The entity has a beta of -0.0697, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning the National are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, the National is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.64 |
Very good reverse predictability
The National Tax Free has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between The National time series from 6th of January 2023 to 17th of December 2023 and 17th of December 2023 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Tax price movement. The serial correlation of -0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current The National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
National Tax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is The National mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting The National's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of The National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that The National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
The National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If The National mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if The National mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in The National mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
The National Lagged Returns
When evaluating The National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of The National mutual fund have on its future price. The National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, The National autocorrelation shows the relationship between The National mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The National Tax Free.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in THE Mutual Fund
The National financial ratios help investors to determine whether THE Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in THE with respect to the benefits of owning The National security.
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