Ceylon Hotels (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| CHOTN0000 | LKR 21.30 0.50 2.40% |
| Symbol | Ceylon |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ceylon Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ceylon Hotels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ceylon Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Ceylon Hotels 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ceylon Hotels' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ceylon Hotels.
| 12/07/2022 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ceylon Hotels on December 7, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ceylon Hotels or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ceylon Hotels over 720 days. More
Ceylon Hotels Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ceylon Hotels' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ceylon Hotels upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.039 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.91 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.82) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.12 |
Ceylon Hotels Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ceylon Hotels' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ceylon Hotels' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ceylon Hotels historical prices to predict the future Ceylon Hotels' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0825 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2045 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0392 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.69) |
Ceylon Hotels Backtested Returns
Ceylon Hotels appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Ceylon Hotels secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Ceylon Hotels, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Ceylon Hotels' Mean Deviation of 1.56, downside deviation of 2.11, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0825 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ceylon Hotels holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0262, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ceylon Hotels are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ceylon Hotels is likely to outperform the market. Please check Ceylon Hotels' downside variance, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to make a quick decision on whether Ceylon Hotels' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Ceylon Hotels has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ceylon Hotels time series from 7th of December 2022 to 2nd of December 2023 and 2nd of December 2023 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ceylon Hotels price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Ceylon Hotels price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.81 |
Ceylon Hotels lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ceylon Hotels stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ceylon Hotels' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ceylon Hotels returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ceylon Hotels has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ceylon Hotels regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ceylon Hotels stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ceylon Hotels stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ceylon Hotels stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ceylon Hotels Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ceylon Hotels' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ceylon Hotels stock have on its future price. Ceylon Hotels autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ceylon Hotels autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ceylon Hotels stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ceylon Hotels.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Ceylon Hotels financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ceylon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ceylon with respect to the benefits of owning Ceylon Hotels security.