China Mengniu Dairy Stock Market Value
| CIADY Stock | USD 19.96 0.72 3.48% |
| Symbol | China |
China Mengniu 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Mengniu's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Mengniu.
| 01/02/2025 |
| 02/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Mengniu on January 2, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Mengniu Dairy or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Mengniu over 30 days. China Mengniu is related to or competes with Nestle SA, ConAgra Foods, Hormel Foods, Kraft Heinz, Kerry Group, Associated British, and General Mills. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the Peopl... More
China Mengniu Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Mengniu's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Mengniu Dairy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.25) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.84 |
China Mengniu Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Mengniu's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Mengniu's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Mengniu historical prices to predict the future China Mengniu's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0081 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Mengniu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Mengniu Dairy Backtested Returns
China Mengniu Dairy secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0503, which signifies that the company had a -0.0503 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. China Mengniu Dairy exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm China Mengniu's Mean Deviation of 2.21, downside deviation of 2.99, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0081 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.8, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, China Mengniu's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding China Mengniu is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, China Mengniu Dairy has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to confirm China Mengniu's potential upside, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and kurtosis , to decide if China Mengniu Dairy performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
China Mengniu Dairy has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Mengniu time series from 2nd of January 2025 to 17th of January 2025 and 17th of January 2025 to 1st of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Mengniu Dairy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current China Mengniu price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
China Mengniu Dairy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Mengniu pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Mengniu's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Mengniu returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Mengniu has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Mengniu regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Mengniu pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Mengniu pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Mengniu pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Mengniu Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Mengniu's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Mengniu pink sheet have on its future price. China Mengniu autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Mengniu autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Mengniu pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Mengniu Dairy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running China Mengniu's price analysis, check to measure China Mengniu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Mengniu is operating at the current time. Most of China Mengniu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Mengniu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Mengniu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Mengniu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.