Caledonia Mining Stock Market Value
| CMCL Stock | USD 10.39 0.16 1.56% |
| Symbol | Caledonia |
Is Precious Metals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caledonia Mining. If investors know Caledonia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caledonia Mining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Caledonia Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caledonia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caledonia Mining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caledonia Mining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caledonia Mining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caledonia Mining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caledonia Mining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caledonia Mining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caledonia Mining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Caledonia Mining 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Caledonia Mining's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Caledonia Mining.
| 12/08/2022 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Caledonia Mining on December 8, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Caledonia Mining or generate 0.0% return on investment in Caledonia Mining over 720 days. Caledonia Mining is related to or competes with DRDGOLD Limited, Galiano Gold, Mastech Holdings, EMX Royalty, and Equinox Gold. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine More
Caledonia Mining Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Caledonia Mining's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Caledonia Mining upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.66) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.56 |
Caledonia Mining Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Caledonia Mining's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Caledonia Mining's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Caledonia Mining historical prices to predict the future Caledonia Mining's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.78) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.53) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caledonia Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caledonia Mining Backtested Returns
Caledonia Mining secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which signifies that the company had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Caledonia Mining exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Caledonia Mining's Mean Deviation of 2.13, standard deviation of 2.99, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.12, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Caledonia Mining's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Caledonia Mining is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Caledonia Mining has a negative expected return of -0.3%. Please make sure to confirm Caledonia Mining's kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if Caledonia Mining performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.53 |
Good reverse predictability
Caledonia Mining has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Caledonia Mining time series from 8th of December 2022 to 3rd of December 2023 and 3rd of December 2023 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Caledonia Mining price movement. The serial correlation of -0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Caledonia Mining price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.56 |
Caledonia Mining lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Caledonia Mining stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Caledonia Mining's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Caledonia Mining returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Caledonia Mining has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Caledonia Mining regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Caledonia Mining stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Caledonia Mining stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Caledonia Mining stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Caledonia Mining Lagged Returns
When evaluating Caledonia Mining's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Caledonia Mining stock have on its future price. Caledonia Mining autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Caledonia Mining autocorrelation shows the relationship between Caledonia Mining stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Caledonia Mining.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Caledonia Mining technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.