Conestoga Micro Cap Fund Market Value
| CMCMX Fund | USD 8.32 0.07 0.85% |
| Symbol | Conestoga |
Conestoga Micro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Conestoga Micro's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Conestoga Micro.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Conestoga Micro on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Conestoga Micro Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Conestoga Micro over 720 days. Conestoga Micro is related to or competes with The Hartford, Mfs Emerging, Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual, and Baron Emerging. Under normal market circumstances, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in equity securities of micro-... More
Conestoga Micro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Conestoga Micro's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Conestoga Micro Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0218 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.43 |
Conestoga Micro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Conestoga Micro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Conestoga Micro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Conestoga Micro historical prices to predict the future Conestoga Micro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0912 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0239 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1062 |
Conestoga Micro Cap Backtested Returns
Conestoga Micro appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Conestoga Micro Cap secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the fund had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Conestoga Micro Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please makes use of Conestoga Micro's Downside Deviation of 1.38, risk adjusted performance of 0.0912, and Mean Deviation of 1.14 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.51, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Conestoga Micro will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Conestoga Micro Cap has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Conestoga Micro time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Conestoga Micro Cap price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Conestoga Micro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.12 |
Conestoga Micro Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Conestoga Micro mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Conestoga Micro's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Conestoga Micro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Conestoga Micro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Conestoga Micro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Conestoga Micro mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Conestoga Micro mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Conestoga Micro mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Conestoga Micro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Conestoga Micro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Conestoga Micro mutual fund have on its future price. Conestoga Micro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Conestoga Micro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Conestoga Micro mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Conestoga Micro Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Conestoga Mutual Fund
Conestoga Micro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Conestoga Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Conestoga with respect to the benefits of owning Conestoga Micro security.
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