Commerzbank's market value is the price at which a share of Commerzbank trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Commerzbank AG investors about its performance. Commerzbank is trading at 6234.00 as of the 23rd of November 2024, a 2.44 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 6390.0. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Commerzbank AG and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Commerzbank over a given investment horizon. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.
Symbol
Commerzbank
Commerzbank 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commerzbank's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commerzbank.
0.00
12/29/2023
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 10 months and 27 days
11/23/2024
0.00
If you would invest 0.00 in Commerzbank on December 29, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commerzbank AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commerzbank over 330 days.
Commerzbank Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commerzbank's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commerzbank AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commerzbank's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commerzbank's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commerzbank historical prices to predict the future Commerzbank's volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commerzbank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commerzbank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commerzbank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Commerzbank AG.
Commerzbank AG Backtested Returns
Commerzbank appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Commerzbank AG secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Commerzbank's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.64% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Commerzbank's Downside Deviation of 3.06, mean deviation of 2.25, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0333 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Commerzbank holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0775, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Commerzbank's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Commerzbank is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Commerzbank's jensen alpha, potential upside, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and expected short fall , to make a quick decision on whether Commerzbank's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation
0.78
Good predictability
Commerzbank AG has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commerzbank time series from 29th of December 2023 to 11th of June 2024 and 11th of June 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commerzbank AG price movement. The serial correlation of 0.78 indicates that around 78.0% of current Commerzbank price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.78
Spearman Rank Test
0.72
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
332.7 K
Commerzbank AG lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commerzbank stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commerzbank's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commerzbank returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commerzbank has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Commerzbank regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commerzbank stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commerzbank stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commerzbank stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Commerzbank Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commerzbank's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commerzbank stock have on its future price. Commerzbank autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commerzbank autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commerzbank stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commerzbank AG.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
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