Country Garden Holdings Stock Market Value
| CTRYY Stock | USD 3.75 0.32 7.86% |
| Symbol | Country |
Country Garden 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Country Garden's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Country Garden.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Country Garden on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Country Garden Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in Country Garden over 30 days. Country Garden is related to or competes with Sun Hung, Sun Hung, China Resources, China Resources, China Vanke, and China Overseas. Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate pr... More
Country Garden Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Country Garden's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Country Garden Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 9.57 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.154 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 86.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (11.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 27.73 |
Country Garden Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Country Garden's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Country Garden's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Country Garden historical prices to predict the future Country Garden's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1333 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 2.03 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.406 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2094 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.9 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Country Garden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Country Garden Holdings Backtested Returns
Country Garden is extremely dangerous given 3 months investment horizon. Country Garden Holdings secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which signifies that the company had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have analyzed and interpolated twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 2.36% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Country Garden Mean Deviation of 7.01, downside deviation of 9.57, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1333 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Country Garden holds a performance score of 13 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.72, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Country Garden's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Country Garden is expected to be smaller as well. Use Country Garden expected short fall, day median price, and the relationship between the potential upside and accumulation distribution , to analyze future returns on Country Garden.
Auto-correlation | 0.24 |
Weak predictability
Country Garden Holdings has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Country Garden time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Country Garden Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of 0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current Country Garden price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Country Garden Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Country Garden pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Country Garden's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Country Garden returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Country Garden has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Country Garden regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Country Garden pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Country Garden pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Country Garden pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Country Garden Lagged Returns
When evaluating Country Garden's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Country Garden pink sheet have on its future price. Country Garden autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Country Garden autocorrelation shows the relationship between Country Garden pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Country Garden Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Country Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Country Garden's price analysis, check to measure Country Garden's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Country Garden is operating at the current time. Most of Country Garden's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Country Garden's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Country Garden's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Country Garden to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.