Ecopetrol (Germany) Market Value
| ECHA Stock | 7.78 0.10 1.30% |
| Symbol | Ecopetrol |
Ecopetrol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ecopetrol's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ecopetrol.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ecopetrol on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ecopetrol SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ecopetrol over 30 days. Ecopetrol is related to or competes with China Resources, ANTA SPORTS, Molson Coors, United Breweries, Fukuyama Transporting, DICKS Sporting, and GREENX METALS. More
Ecopetrol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ecopetrol's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ecopetrol SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.97 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.5 |
Ecopetrol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ecopetrol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ecopetrol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ecopetrol historical prices to predict the future Ecopetrol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.57) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.36) |
Ecopetrol SA Backtested Returns
Ecopetrol SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which denotes the company had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ecopetrol SA exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Ecopetrol's Mean Deviation of 1.64, variance of 4.35, and Standard Deviation of 2.09 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.69, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ecopetrol's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ecopetrol is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ecopetrol SA has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to confirm Ecopetrol's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Ecopetrol SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.85 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Ecopetrol SA has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ecopetrol time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ecopetrol SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current Ecopetrol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.13 |
Ecopetrol SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ecopetrol stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ecopetrol's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ecopetrol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ecopetrol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ecopetrol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ecopetrol stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ecopetrol stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ecopetrol stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ecopetrol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ecopetrol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ecopetrol stock have on its future price. Ecopetrol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ecopetrol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ecopetrol stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ecopetrol SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Ecopetrol Stock Analysis
When running Ecopetrol's price analysis, check to measure Ecopetrol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ecopetrol is operating at the current time. Most of Ecopetrol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ecopetrol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ecopetrol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ecopetrol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.