Ege Gubre (Turkey) Market Value
| EGGUB Stock | TRY 57.95 1.75 2.93% |
| Symbol | Ege |
Ege Gubre 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ege Gubre's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ege Gubre.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ege Gubre on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ege Gubre Sanayi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ege Gubre over 720 days. Ege Gubre is related to or competes with Cuhadaroglu Metal, Politeknik Metal, ICBC Turkey, Koza Anadolu, Datagate Bilgisayar, and Akbank TAS. Ege Gbre Sanayii A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey More
Ege Gubre Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ege Gubre's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ege Gubre Sanayi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.24 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.14 |
Ege Gubre Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ege Gubre's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ege Gubre's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ege Gubre historical prices to predict the future Ege Gubre's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.76) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.64) |
Ege Gubre Sanayi Backtested Returns
Ege Gubre Sanayi secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.12, which denotes the company had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ege Gubre Sanayi exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Ege Gubre's Mean Deviation of 2.45, standard deviation of 3.53, and Variance of 12.47 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0563, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ege Gubre's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ege Gubre is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ege Gubre Sanayi has a negative expected return of -0.34%. Please make sure to confirm Ege Gubre's skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to decide if Ege Gubre Sanayi performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.74 |
Good predictability
Ege Gubre Sanayi has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ege Gubre time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ege Gubre Sanayi price movement. The serial correlation of 0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Ege Gubre price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 95.78 |
Ege Gubre Sanayi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ege Gubre stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ege Gubre's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ege Gubre returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ege Gubre has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ege Gubre regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ege Gubre stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ege Gubre stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ege Gubre stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ege Gubre Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ege Gubre's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ege Gubre stock have on its future price. Ege Gubre autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ege Gubre autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ege Gubre stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ege Gubre Sanayi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Ege Stock
Ege Gubre financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ege Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ege with respect to the benefits of owning Ege Gubre security.