Elspec (Israel) Market Value
| ELSPC Stock | ILA 768.00 9.30 1.23% |
| Symbol | Elspec |
Elspec 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Elspec's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Elspec.
| 09/04/2023 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Elspec on September 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Elspec or generate 0.0% return on investment in Elspec over 450 days. Elspec is related to or competes with Arad, Augwind Energy, Tadiran Hldg, Orbit Technologies, and Al Bad. Elspec Engineering Ltd develops, manufactures, and markets power quality solutions and services to the industrial, comme... More
Elspec Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Elspec's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Elspec upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2238 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.36) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.0 |
Elspec Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Elspec's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Elspec's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Elspec historical prices to predict the future Elspec's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2147 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7429 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3025 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2849 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (11.02) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elspec's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elspec Backtested Returns
Elspec appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Elspec secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.26, which denotes the company had a 0.26% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Elspec's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.66% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Elspec's Mean Deviation of 2.16, downside deviation of 2.16, and Coefficient Of Variation of 368.51 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Elspec holds a performance score of 20. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0667, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Elspec are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Elspec is likely to outperform the market. Please check Elspec's maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and day typical price , to make a quick decision on whether Elspec's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
Elspec has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Elspec time series from 4th of September 2023 to 16th of April 2024 and 16th of April 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Elspec price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Elspec price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 8092.9 |
Elspec lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Elspec stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Elspec's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Elspec returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Elspec has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Elspec regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Elspec stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Elspec stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Elspec stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Elspec Lagged Returns
When evaluating Elspec's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Elspec stock have on its future price. Elspec autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Elspec autocorrelation shows the relationship between Elspec stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Elspec.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Elspec Stock Analysis
When running Elspec's price analysis, check to measure Elspec's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elspec is operating at the current time. Most of Elspec's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elspec's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elspec's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elspec to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.