Erawan (Thailand) Market Value
| ERW Stock | THB 4.12 0.04 0.96% |
| Symbol | Erawan |
Erawan 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Erawan's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Erawan.
| 09/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Erawan on September 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Erawan Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Erawan over 60 days. Erawan is related to or competes with Central Plaza, Minor International, Central Pattana, CP ALL, and Bangkok Dusit. The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in hotel and building rental businesses in Th... More
Erawan Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Erawan's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Erawan Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0678 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.4 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.17 |
Erawan Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Erawan's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Erawan's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Erawan historical prices to predict the future Erawan's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0964 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2821 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0598 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.72) |
Erawan Group Backtested Returns
Erawan is out of control given 3 months investment horizon. Erawan Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which denotes the company had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We are able to interpolate and break down twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 14.46% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Erawan Downside Deviation of 2.48, semi deviation of 1.46, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0964 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Erawan holds a performance score of 8 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.34, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Erawan are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Erawan is likely to outperform the market. Use Erawan semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to analyze future returns on Erawan.
Auto-correlation | -0.33 |
Poor reverse predictability
The Erawan Group has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Erawan time series from 23rd of September 2024 to 23rd of October 2024 and 23rd of October 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Erawan Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Erawan price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Erawan Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Erawan stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Erawan's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Erawan returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Erawan has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Erawan regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Erawan stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Erawan stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Erawan stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Erawan Lagged Returns
When evaluating Erawan's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Erawan stock have on its future price. Erawan autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Erawan autocorrelation shows the relationship between Erawan stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Erawan Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Erawan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Erawan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Erawan with respect to the benefits of owning Erawan security.