Century Aluminum (Germany) Market Value
| EY3 Stock | EUR 22.52 0.42 1.90% |
| Symbol | Century |
Century Aluminum 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Century Aluminum's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Century Aluminum.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Century Aluminum on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Century Aluminum or generate 0.0% return on investment in Century Aluminum over 540 days. Century Aluminum is related to or competes with CARSALES, PLAY2CHILL, FAST RETAIL, MARKET VECTR, Playa Hotels, Canon Marketing, and Vastned Retail. Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum produ... More
Century Aluminum Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Century Aluminum's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Century Aluminum upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1656 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.68 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.49) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.36 |
Century Aluminum Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Century Aluminum's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Century Aluminum's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Century Aluminum historical prices to predict the future Century Aluminum's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1571 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6936 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1811 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.221 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6611 |
Century Aluminum Backtested Returns
Century Aluminum appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Century Aluminum secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.22, which signifies that the company had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Century Aluminum's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.96% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Century Aluminum's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1571, mean deviation of 3.12, and Downside Deviation of 3.28 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Century Aluminum holds a performance score of 17. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.27, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Century Aluminum will likely underperform. Please check Century Aluminum's information ratio, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Century Aluminum's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.16 |
Very weak predictability
Century Aluminum has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Century Aluminum time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Century Aluminum price movement. The serial correlation of 0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Century Aluminum price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.59 |
Century Aluminum lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Century Aluminum stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Century Aluminum's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Century Aluminum returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Century Aluminum has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Century Aluminum regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Century Aluminum stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Century Aluminum stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Century Aluminum stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Century Aluminum Lagged Returns
When evaluating Century Aluminum's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Century Aluminum stock have on its future price. Century Aluminum autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Century Aluminum autocorrelation shows the relationship between Century Aluminum stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Century Aluminum.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Century Stock
When determining whether Century Aluminum offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Century Aluminum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Century Aluminum Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Century Aluminum Stock:Check out Century Aluminum Correlation, Century Aluminum Volatility and Century Aluminum Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Century Aluminum. For more detail on how to invest in Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Century Aluminum technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.