Fidelity Contrafund Fund Market Value
| FCNTX Fund | USD 21.81 0.03 0.14% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Contrafund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Contrafund.
| 01/06/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Contrafund on January 6, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Contrafund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Contrafund over 690 days. Fidelity Contrafund is related to or competes with Fidelity Low-priced, Fidelity Growth, Fidelity Magellan, Fidelity Diversified, and Fidelity Blue. The fund normally invests primarily in common stocks More
Fidelity Contrafund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Contrafund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.47 |
Fidelity Contrafund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Contrafund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Contrafund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Contrafund historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Contrafund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0842 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0893 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 35.83 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Contrafund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Contrafund Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Fidelity Mutual Fund to be very steady. Fidelity Contrafund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which denotes the fund had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Fidelity Contrafund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Contrafund's Downside Deviation of 1.12, mean deviation of 0.6251, and Coefficient Of Variation of 926.1 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0025, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Fidelity Contrafund's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fidelity Contrafund is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.89 |
Very good predictability
Fidelity Contrafund has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Contrafund time series from 6th of January 2023 to 17th of December 2023 and 17th of December 2023 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Contrafund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.89 indicates that approximately 89.0% of current Fidelity Contrafund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.89 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.87 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.61 |
Fidelity Contrafund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Contrafund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Contrafund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Contrafund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Contrafund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Contrafund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Contrafund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Contrafund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Contrafund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Contrafund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Contrafund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Mutual Fund
Fidelity Contrafund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fidelity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fidelity with respect to the benefits of owning Fidelity Contrafund security.
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