Federated Premier Municipal Fund Market Value
| FMN Fund | USD 11.14 0.05 0.45% |
| Symbol | Federated |
Federated Premier 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federated Premier's fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federated Premier.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federated Premier on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federated Premier Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federated Premier over 30 days. Federated Premier is related to or competes with MFS Investment, Eaton Vance, Blackrock Muniholdings, Blackrock Muniyield, Munivest Fund, Blackrock Muni, and DTF Tax. Federated Premier Municipal Income Fund is a closed-ended fixed income mutual fund launched by Federated Investors, Inc More
Federated Premier Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federated Premier's fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federated Premier Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.49) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.06 |
Federated Premier Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federated Premier's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federated Premier's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federated Premier historical prices to predict the future Federated Premier's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6511 |
Federated Premier Backtested Returns
Federated Premier secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which denotes the fund had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Federated Premier Municipal exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Federated Premier's Variance of 0.5671, mean deviation of 0.4979, and Standard Deviation of 0.7531 to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.12, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Federated Premier are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Federated Premier is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.50 |
Modest predictability
Federated Premier Municipal has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federated Premier time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federated Premier price movement. The serial correlation of 0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current Federated Premier price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Federated Premier lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federated Premier fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federated Premier's fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federated Premier returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federated Premier has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federated Premier regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federated Premier fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federated Premier fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federated Premier fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federated Premier Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federated Premier's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federated Premier fund have on its future price. Federated Premier autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federated Premier autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federated Premier fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federated Premier Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Federated Premier
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Federated Premier position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Federated Premier will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Federated Fund
| 0.82 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | KNPAX | Kinetics Paradigm Steady Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | KMKAX | Kinetics Market Oppo Steady Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | KNPYX | Kinetics Paradigm Steady Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | KNPCX | Kinetics Paradigm Steady Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Federated Premier could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Federated Premier when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Federated Premier - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Federated Premier Municipal to buy it.
The correlation of Federated Premier is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Federated Premier moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Federated Premier moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Federated Premier can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Federated Fund
Federated Premier financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Premier security.
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