Gurktaler (Austria) Market Value
| GAGS Stock | EUR 9.20 0.70 8.24% |
| Symbol | Gurktaler |
Gurktaler 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gurktaler's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gurktaler.
| 11/30/2023 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gurktaler on November 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gurktaler AG ST or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gurktaler over 360 days. Gurktaler is related to or competes with Gurktaler Aktiengesellscha, Josef Manner, Schoeller Bleckmann, AGRANA Beteiligungs, and BKS Bank. More
Gurktaler Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gurktaler's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gurktaler AG ST upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0113 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 112.44 | |||
| Value At Risk | (10.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.24 |
Gurktaler Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gurktaler's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gurktaler's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gurktaler historical prices to predict the future Gurktaler's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0258 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.69) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.78) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0338 |
Gurktaler AG ST Backtested Returns
Gurktaler appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Gurktaler AG ST holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0215, which attests that the entity had a 0.0215% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Gurktaler AG ST, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Gurktaler's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0258, standard deviation of 13.04, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0438 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gurktaler holds a performance score of 1. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 7.96, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Gurktaler will likely underperform. Please check Gurktaler's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Gurktaler's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Gurktaler AG ST has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gurktaler time series from 30th of November 2023 to 28th of May 2024 and 28th of May 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gurktaler AG ST price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Gurktaler price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.34 |
Gurktaler AG ST lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gurktaler stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gurktaler's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gurktaler returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gurktaler has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gurktaler regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gurktaler stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gurktaler stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gurktaler stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gurktaler Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gurktaler's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gurktaler stock have on its future price. Gurktaler autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gurktaler autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gurktaler stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gurktaler AG ST.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Gurktaler Stock
Gurktaler financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gurktaler Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gurktaler with respect to the benefits of owning Gurktaler security.