Gul Ahmed (Pakistan) Market Value
| GATM Stock | 21.98 0.30 1.35% |
| Symbol | Gul |
Gul Ahmed 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gul Ahmed's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gul Ahmed.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gul Ahmed on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gul Ahmed Textile or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gul Ahmed over 720 days. Gul Ahmed is related to or competes with Masood Textile, Fauji Foods, KSB Pumps, Mari Petroleum, Loads, Thatta Cement, and KOT Addu. More
Gul Ahmed Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gul Ahmed's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gul Ahmed Textile upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0605 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.42 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.86) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.22 |
Gul Ahmed Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gul Ahmed's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gul Ahmed's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gul Ahmed historical prices to predict the future Gul Ahmed's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0992 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2587 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0769 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 5.18 |
Gul Ahmed Textile Backtested Returns
Gul Ahmed appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Gul Ahmed Textile holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.12, which attests that the entity had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Gul Ahmed Textile, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Gul Ahmed's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0992, downside deviation of 1.79, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 5.19 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gul Ahmed holds a performance score of 9. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0512, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gul Ahmed's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gul Ahmed is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Gul Ahmed's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Gul Ahmed's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.25 |
Poor predictability
Gul Ahmed Textile has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gul Ahmed time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gul Ahmed Textile price movement. The serial correlation of 0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Gul Ahmed price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.54 |
Gul Ahmed Textile lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gul Ahmed stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gul Ahmed's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gul Ahmed returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gul Ahmed has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gul Ahmed regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gul Ahmed stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gul Ahmed stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gul Ahmed stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gul Ahmed Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gul Ahmed's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gul Ahmed stock have on its future price. Gul Ahmed autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gul Ahmed autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gul Ahmed stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gul Ahmed Textile.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Gul Ahmed
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gul Ahmed position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gul Ahmed will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Gul Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gul Ahmed could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gul Ahmed when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gul Ahmed - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gul Ahmed Textile to buy it.
The correlation of Gul Ahmed is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gul Ahmed moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gul Ahmed Textile moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gul Ahmed can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Gul Stock
Gul Ahmed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gul Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gul with respect to the benefits of owning Gul Ahmed security.