Bilfinger (Germany) Market Value
| GBF Stock | 47.65 2.55 5.65% |
| Symbol | Bilfinger |
Bilfinger 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bilfinger's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bilfinger.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Bilfinger on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bilfinger SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bilfinger over 30 days. Bilfinger is related to or competes with BOSTON BEER, United Breweries, MagnaChip Semiconductor, Westinghouse Air, Altair Engineering, THAI BEVERAGE, and SCANSOURCE. More
Bilfinger Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bilfinger's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bilfinger SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.85 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.11 |
Bilfinger Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bilfinger's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bilfinger's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bilfinger historical prices to predict the future Bilfinger's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.005 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.02) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bilfinger's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bilfinger SE Backtested Returns
Bilfinger SE secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0069, which signifies that the company had a -0.0069% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Bilfinger SE exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Bilfinger's Mean Deviation of 1.03, standard deviation of 1.84, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.005 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.68, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Bilfinger's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bilfinger is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Bilfinger SE has a negative expected return of -0.0127%. Please make sure to confirm Bilfinger's kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if Bilfinger SE performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.73 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Bilfinger SE has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bilfinger time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bilfinger SE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Bilfinger price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.72 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.67 |
Bilfinger SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Bilfinger stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bilfinger's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bilfinger returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bilfinger has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Bilfinger regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bilfinger stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bilfinger stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bilfinger stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Bilfinger Lagged Returns
When evaluating Bilfinger's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bilfinger stock have on its future price. Bilfinger autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bilfinger autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bilfinger stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bilfinger SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Bilfinger Stock Analysis
When running Bilfinger's price analysis, check to measure Bilfinger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bilfinger is operating at the current time. Most of Bilfinger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bilfinger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bilfinger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bilfinger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.