Gajah Tunggal (Indonesia) Market Value
| GJTL Stock | IDR 1,170 30.00 2.63% |
| Symbol | Gajah |
Gajah Tunggal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gajah Tunggal's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gajah Tunggal.
| 07/05/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gajah Tunggal on July 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gajah Tunggal Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gajah Tunggal over 510 days. Gajah Tunggal is related to or competes with Perusahaan Perkebunan, Solusi Bangun, Ciputra Development, Global Mediacom, and Indocement Tunggal. More
Gajah Tunggal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gajah Tunggal's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gajah Tunggal Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.63 |
Gajah Tunggal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gajah Tunggal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gajah Tunggal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gajah Tunggal historical prices to predict the future Gajah Tunggal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.52) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2738 |
Gajah Tunggal Tbk Backtested Returns
Gajah Tunggal Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0632, which attests that the entity had a -0.0632% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gajah Tunggal Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gajah Tunggal's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), market risk adjusted performance of 0.2838, and Standard Deviation of 2.43 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.52, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gajah Tunggal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Gajah Tunggal is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Gajah Tunggal Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to check out Gajah Tunggal's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Gajah Tunggal Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.43 |
Average predictability
Gajah Tunggal Tbk has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gajah Tunggal time series from 5th of July 2023 to 16th of March 2024 and 16th of March 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gajah Tunggal Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current Gajah Tunggal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7990.9 |
Gajah Tunggal Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gajah Tunggal stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gajah Tunggal's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gajah Tunggal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gajah Tunggal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gajah Tunggal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gajah Tunggal stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gajah Tunggal stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gajah Tunggal stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gajah Tunggal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gajah Tunggal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gajah Tunggal stock have on its future price. Gajah Tunggal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gajah Tunggal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gajah Tunggal stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gajah Tunggal Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Gajah Tunggal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gajah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gajah with respect to the benefits of owning Gajah Tunggal security.