Granite Construction (Germany) Market Value
| GRG Stock | 94.50 0.50 0.53% |
| Symbol | Granite |
Granite Construction 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Granite Construction's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Granite Construction.
| 01/31/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Granite Construction on January 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Granite Construction or generate 0.0% return on investment in Granite Construction over 300 days. Granite Construction is related to or competes with Flutter Entertainment, Townsquare Media, Hollywood Bowl, Caseys General, XLMedia PLC, SPARTAN STORES, and BURLINGTON STORES. More
Granite Construction Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Granite Construction's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Granite Construction upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2267 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.49 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.0 |
Granite Construction Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Granite Construction's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Granite Construction's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Granite Construction historical prices to predict the future Granite Construction's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2289 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.598 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2604 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2814 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.28) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction Backtested Returns
Granite Construction appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Granite Construction holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.29, which attests that the entity had a 0.29% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By evaluating Granite Construction's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.58% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Granite Construction's risk adjusted performance of 0.2289, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (2.27) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Granite Construction holds a performance score of 22. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.25, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Granite Construction are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Granite Construction is likely to outperform the market. Please check Granite Construction's sortino ratio, semi variance, and the relationship between the standard deviation and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Granite Construction's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.84 |
Very good predictability
Granite Construction has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Granite Construction time series from 31st of January 2024 to 29th of June 2024 and 29th of June 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Granite Construction price movement. The serial correlation of 0.84 indicates that around 84.0% of current Granite Construction price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.84 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.92 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 107.93 |
Granite Construction lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Granite Construction stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Granite Construction's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Granite Construction returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Granite Construction has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Granite Construction regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Granite Construction stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Granite Construction stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Granite Construction stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Granite Construction Lagged Returns
When evaluating Granite Construction's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Granite Construction stock have on its future price. Granite Construction autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Granite Construction autocorrelation shows the relationship between Granite Construction stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Granite Construction.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Granite Stock Analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.