Guotai Junan Securities Stock Market Value

Symbol

Guotai

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guotai Junan's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guotai Junan.

Guotai Junan Upside/Downside Indicators

Guotai Junan Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guotai Junan's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guotai Junan's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guotai Junan historical prices to predict the future Guotai Junan's volatility.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guotai Junan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Autocorrelation, which is Guotai Junan pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guotai Junan's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guotai Junan returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guotai Junan has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guotai Junan pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guotai Junan pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guotai Junan pink sheet over time.

When evaluating Guotai Junan's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guotai Junan pink sheet have on its future price. Guotai Junan autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guotai Junan autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guotai Junan pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guotai Junan Securities.

Guotai Junan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guotai Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guotai with respect to the benefits of owning Guotai Junan security.