Harley Davidson (Germany) Market Value
| HAR Stock | 28.96 0.28 0.98% |
| Symbol | Harley |
Harley Davidson 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Harley Davidson's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Harley Davidson.
| 12/18/2024 |
| 01/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Harley Davidson on December 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Harley Davidson or generate 0.0% return on investment in Harley Davidson over 30 days. Harley Davidson is related to or competes with 24SEVENOFFICE GROUP, GEELY AUTOMOBILE, Cairo Communication, Zoom Video, and Mobilezone Holding. More
Harley Davidson Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Harley Davidson's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Harley Davidson upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.09 |
Harley Davidson Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Harley Davidson's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Harley Davidson's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Harley Davidson historical prices to predict the future Harley Davidson's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9044 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Harley Davidson Backtested Returns
Harley Davidson holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0998, which attests that the entity had a -0.0998% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Harley Davidson exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Harley Davidson's Standard Deviation of 2.09, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.9144 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.15, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Harley Davidson are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Harley Davidson is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Harley Davidson has a negative expected return of -0.22%. Please make sure to check out Harley Davidson's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and price action indicator , to decide if Harley Davidson performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
Harley Davidson has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Harley Davidson time series from 18th of December 2024 to 2nd of January 2025 and 2nd of January 2025 to 17th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Harley Davidson price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Harley Davidson price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.55 |
Harley Davidson lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Harley Davidson stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Harley Davidson's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Harley Davidson returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Harley Davidson has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Harley Davidson regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Harley Davidson stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Harley Davidson stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Harley Davidson stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Harley Davidson Lagged Returns
When evaluating Harley Davidson's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Harley Davidson stock have on its future price. Harley Davidson autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Harley Davidson autocorrelation shows the relationship between Harley Davidson stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Harley Davidson.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Harley Stock Analysis
When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.