Hennessy Focus Fund Market Value
| HFCSX Fund | USD 52.76 0.68 1.31% |
| Symbol | Hennessy |
Hennessy Focus 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hennessy Focus' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hennessy Focus.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hennessy Focus on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hennessy Focus Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hennessy Focus over 30 days. Hennessy Focus is related to or competes with Hennessy Nerstone, Amg Yacktman, Parnassus Endeavor, Hennessy Small, and Akre Focus. The fund invests in domestic companies whose securities are listed on U.S More
Hennessy Focus Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hennessy Focus' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hennessy Focus Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.51 |
Hennessy Focus Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hennessy Focus' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hennessy Focus' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hennessy Focus historical prices to predict the future Hennessy Focus' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0229 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0184 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hennessy Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hennessy Focus Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Hennessy Mutual Fund to be very steady. Hennessy Focus holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0071, which attests that the entity had a 0.0071% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Hennessy Focus, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Hennessy Focus' Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0284, downside deviation of 1.15, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0229 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0081%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.05, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Hennessy Focus returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Hennessy Focus is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
Hennessy Focus Fund has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hennessy Focus time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hennessy Focus price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Hennessy Focus price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.27 |
Hennessy Focus lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hennessy Focus mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hennessy Focus' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hennessy Focus returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hennessy Focus has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hennessy Focus regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hennessy Focus mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hennessy Focus mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hennessy Focus mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hennessy Focus Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hennessy Focus' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hennessy Focus mutual fund have on its future price. Hennessy Focus autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hennessy Focus autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hennessy Focus mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hennessy Focus Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Hennessy Mutual Fund
Hennessy Focus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hennessy Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hennessy with respect to the benefits of owning Hennessy Focus security.
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