INTERCONT HOTELS (Germany) Market Value
| IC1B Stock | EUR 116.00 1.00 0.87% |
| Symbol | INTERCONT |
INTERCONT HOTELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to INTERCONT HOTELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of INTERCONT HOTELS.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in INTERCONT HOTELS on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding INTERCONT HOTELS or generate 0.0% return on investment in INTERCONT HOTELS over 90 days. INTERCONT HOTELS is related to or competes with Choice Hotels. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle... More
INTERCONT HOTELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure INTERCONT HOTELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess INTERCONT HOTELS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1682 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.86 |
INTERCONT HOTELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for INTERCONT HOTELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as INTERCONT HOTELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use INTERCONT HOTELS historical prices to predict the future INTERCONT HOTELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1825 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4965 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1453 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1631 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.77) |
INTERCONT HOTELS Backtested Returns
INTERCONT HOTELS appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. INTERCONT HOTELS holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.21, which attests that the entity had a 0.21% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for INTERCONT HOTELS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize INTERCONT HOTELS's risk adjusted performance of 0.1825, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.76) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, INTERCONT HOTELS holds a performance score of 16. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.26, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning INTERCONT HOTELS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, INTERCONT HOTELS is likely to outperform the market. Please check INTERCONT HOTELS's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether INTERCONT HOTELS's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.88 |
Very good predictability
INTERCONT HOTELS has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between INTERCONT HOTELS time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of INTERCONT HOTELS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current INTERCONT HOTELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.88 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.82 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 34.36 |
INTERCONT HOTELS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is INTERCONT HOTELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting INTERCONT HOTELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of INTERCONT HOTELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that INTERCONT HOTELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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INTERCONT HOTELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If INTERCONT HOTELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if INTERCONT HOTELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in INTERCONT HOTELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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INTERCONT HOTELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating INTERCONT HOTELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of INTERCONT HOTELS stock have on its future price. INTERCONT HOTELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, INTERCONT HOTELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between INTERCONT HOTELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in INTERCONT HOTELS.
Regressed Prices |
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Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in INTERCONT Stock
INTERCONT HOTELS financial ratios help investors to determine whether INTERCONT Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in INTERCONT with respect to the benefits of owning INTERCONT HOTELS security.