Jaya Agra (Indonesia) Market Value
| JAWA Stock | IDR 114.00 3.00 2.56% |
| Symbol | Jaya |
Jaya Agra 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Jaya Agra's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Jaya Agra.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Jaya Agra on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Jaya Agra Wattie or generate 0.0% return on investment in Jaya Agra over 30 days. Jaya Agra is related to or competes with Kalbe Farma, and Akr Corporindo. PT Jaya Agra Wattie Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the cultivation, processing, logistics, and marketin... More
Jaya Agra Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Jaya Agra's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Jaya Agra Wattie upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.58 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.0002) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 32.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 13.43 |
Jaya Agra Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Jaya Agra's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Jaya Agra's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Jaya Agra historical prices to predict the future Jaya Agra's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0273 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0791 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.72) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.0003) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3569 |
Jaya Agra Wattie Backtested Returns
Jaya Agra Wattie holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0489, which attests that the entity had a -0.0489% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Jaya Agra Wattie exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Jaya Agra's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0273, market risk adjusted performance of 0.3669, and Downside Deviation of 3.58 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.34, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Jaya Agra's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Jaya Agra is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Jaya Agra Wattie has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to check out Jaya Agra's potential upside, semi variance, and the relationship between the value at risk and downside variance , to decide if Jaya Agra Wattie performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
Jaya Agra Wattie has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Jaya Agra time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Jaya Agra Wattie price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Jaya Agra price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 33.87 |
Jaya Agra Wattie lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Jaya Agra stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Jaya Agra's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Jaya Agra returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Jaya Agra has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Jaya Agra regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Jaya Agra stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Jaya Agra stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Jaya Agra stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Jaya Agra Lagged Returns
When evaluating Jaya Agra's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Jaya Agra stock have on its future price. Jaya Agra autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Jaya Agra autocorrelation shows the relationship between Jaya Agra stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Jaya Agra Wattie.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Jaya Agra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jaya with respect to the benefits of owning Jaya Agra security.