KENYA MERCIAL (Tanzania) Market Value
| KCB Stock | 800.00 30.00 3.61% |
| Symbol | KENYA |
KENYA MERCIAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to KENYA MERCIAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of KENYA MERCIAL.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in KENYA MERCIAL on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding KENYA MERCIAL BANK or generate 0.0% return on investment in KENYA MERCIAL over 30 days.
KENYA MERCIAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure KENYA MERCIAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess KENYA MERCIAL BANK upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1324 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.23 |
KENYA MERCIAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for KENYA MERCIAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as KENYA MERCIAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use KENYA MERCIAL historical prices to predict the future KENYA MERCIAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1557 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3669 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0682 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1026 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.52 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KENYA MERCIAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KENYA MERCIAL BANK Backtested Returns
KENYA MERCIAL appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. KENYA MERCIAL BANK has Sharpe Ratio of 0.16, which conveys that the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for KENYA MERCIAL, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise KENYA MERCIAL's risk adjusted performance of 0.1557, and Mean Deviation of 1.52 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, KENYA MERCIAL holds a performance score of 12. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.26, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, KENYA MERCIAL's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding KENYA MERCIAL is expected to be smaller as well. Please check KENYA MERCIAL's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether KENYA MERCIAL's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
KENYA MERCIAL BANK has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between KENYA MERCIAL time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of KENYA MERCIAL BANK price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current KENYA MERCIAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 152.07 |
KENYA MERCIAL BANK lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is KENYA MERCIAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting KENYA MERCIAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of KENYA MERCIAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that KENYA MERCIAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
KENYA MERCIAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If KENYA MERCIAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if KENYA MERCIAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in KENYA MERCIAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
KENYA MERCIAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating KENYA MERCIAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of KENYA MERCIAL stock have on its future price. KENYA MERCIAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, KENYA MERCIAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between KENYA MERCIAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in KENYA MERCIAL BANK.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |