Khyber Tobacco (Pakistan) Market Value
| KHYT Stock | 361.00 0.11 0.03% |
| Symbol | Khyber |
Khyber Tobacco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Khyber Tobacco's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Khyber Tobacco.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Khyber Tobacco on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Khyber Tobacco or generate 0.0% return on investment in Khyber Tobacco over 30 days.
Khyber Tobacco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Khyber Tobacco's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Khyber Tobacco upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 7.7 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0061 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.95 |
Khyber Tobacco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Khyber Tobacco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Khyber Tobacco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Khyber Tobacco historical prices to predict the future Khyber Tobacco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0296 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0079 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.72) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0046 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1207 |
Khyber Tobacco Backtested Returns
Khyber Tobacco has Sharpe Ratio of -0.24, which conveys that the firm had a -0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Khyber Tobacco exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Khyber Tobacco's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0296, mean deviation of 4.17, and Downside Deviation of 7.7 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.24, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Khyber Tobacco will likely underperform. At this point, Khyber Tobacco has a negative expected return of -1.2%. Please make sure to verify Khyber Tobacco's potential upside, semi variance, and the relationship between the value at risk and downside variance , to decide if Khyber Tobacco performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.1 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Khyber Tobacco has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Khyber Tobacco time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Khyber Tobacco price movement. The serial correlation of -0.1 indicates that less than 10.0% of current Khyber Tobacco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.1 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 80.12 |
Khyber Tobacco lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Khyber Tobacco stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Khyber Tobacco's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Khyber Tobacco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Khyber Tobacco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Khyber Tobacco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Khyber Tobacco stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Khyber Tobacco stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Khyber Tobacco stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Khyber Tobacco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Khyber Tobacco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Khyber Tobacco stock have on its future price. Khyber Tobacco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Khyber Tobacco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Khyber Tobacco stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Khyber Tobacco.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Khyber Tobacco
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Khyber Tobacco position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Khyber Tobacco will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Khyber Tobacco could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Khyber Tobacco when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Khyber Tobacco - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Khyber Tobacco to buy it.
The correlation of Khyber Tobacco is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Khyber Tobacco moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Khyber Tobacco moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Khyber Tobacco can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.