Kalbe Farma (Indonesia) Market Value
| KLBF Stock | IDR 1,505 35.00 2.38% |
| Symbol | Kalbe |
Kalbe Farma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Kalbe Farma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Kalbe Farma.
| 05/30/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Kalbe Farma on May 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Kalbe Farma Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Kalbe Farma over 180 days. Kalbe Farma is related to or competes with Astra Graphia, Hexindo Adiperkasa, Lautan Luas, and Citra Marga. More
Kalbe Farma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Kalbe Farma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Kalbe Farma Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.79) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.64 |
Kalbe Farma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Kalbe Farma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Kalbe Farma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Kalbe Farma historical prices to predict the future Kalbe Farma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.45) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 9.65 |
Kalbe Farma Tbk Backtested Returns
Kalbe Farma Tbk has Sharpe Ratio of -0.13, which conveys that the firm had a -0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Kalbe Farma exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Kalbe Farma's Standard Deviation of 1.58, risk adjusted performance of (0.09), and Mean Deviation of 1.26 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0207, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Kalbe Farma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Kalbe Farma is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Kalbe Farma Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.2%. Please make sure to verify Kalbe Farma's total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Kalbe Farma Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.86 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Kalbe Farma Tbk has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Kalbe Farma time series from 30th of May 2024 to 28th of August 2024 and 28th of August 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Kalbe Farma Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Kalbe Farma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9808.06 |
Kalbe Farma Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Kalbe Farma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Kalbe Farma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Kalbe Farma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Kalbe Farma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Kalbe Farma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Kalbe Farma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Kalbe Farma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Kalbe Farma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Kalbe Farma Lagged Returns
When evaluating Kalbe Farma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Kalbe Farma stock have on its future price. Kalbe Farma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Kalbe Farma autocorrelation shows the relationship between Kalbe Farma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Kalbe Farma Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Kalbe Farma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kalbe Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kalbe with respect to the benefits of owning Kalbe Farma security.