Kirana Megatara (Indonesia) Market Value
| KMTR Stock | IDR 310.00 16.00 4.91% |
| Symbol | Kirana |
Kirana Megatara 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Kirana Megatara's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Kirana Megatara.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Kirana Megatara on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Kirana Megatara Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Kirana Megatara over 30 days. Kirana Megatara is related to or competes with Emdeki Utama, Panca Budi, Mark Dynamics, Map Boga, and Hartadinata Abadi. PT Kirana Megatara Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces crumb rubber in Indonesia More
Kirana Megatara Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Kirana Megatara's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Kirana Megatara Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1022 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.46 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.7 |
Kirana Megatara Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Kirana Megatara's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Kirana Megatara's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Kirana Megatara historical prices to predict the future Kirana Megatara's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.112 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4177 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1299 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6709 |
Kirana Megatara Tbk Backtested Returns
Kirana Megatara appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Kirana Megatara Tbk has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Kirana Megatara, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Kirana Megatara's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.112, downside deviation of 2.99, and Mean Deviation of 2.58 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Kirana Megatara holds a performance score of 9. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.76, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Kirana Megatara's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Kirana Megatara is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Kirana Megatara's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Kirana Megatara's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
Kirana Megatara Tbk has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Kirana Megatara time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Kirana Megatara Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Kirana Megatara price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 109.82 |
Kirana Megatara Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Kirana Megatara stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Kirana Megatara's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Kirana Megatara returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Kirana Megatara has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Kirana Megatara regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Kirana Megatara stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Kirana Megatara stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Kirana Megatara stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Kirana Megatara Lagged Returns
When evaluating Kirana Megatara's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Kirana Megatara stock have on its future price. Kirana Megatara autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Kirana Megatara autocorrelation shows the relationship between Kirana Megatara stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Kirana Megatara Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Kirana Megatara financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kirana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kirana with respect to the benefits of owning Kirana Megatara security.