SAN MIGUEL's market value is the price at which a share of SAN MIGUEL trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of SAN MIGUEL BREWERY investors about its performance. SAN MIGUEL is trading at 0.0975 as of the 10th of January 2025, a 2.5% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 0.0975. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of SAN MIGUEL BREWERY and determine expected loss or profit from investing in SAN MIGUEL over a given investment horizon. Check out SAN MIGUEL Correlation, SAN MIGUEL Volatility and SAN MIGUEL Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on SAN MIGUEL.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SAN MIGUEL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SAN MIGUEL is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SAN MIGUEL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
SAN MIGUEL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to SAN MIGUEL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of SAN MIGUEL.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure SAN MIGUEL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess SAN MIGUEL BREWERY upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for SAN MIGUEL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as SAN MIGUEL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use SAN MIGUEL historical prices to predict the future SAN MIGUEL's volatility.
SAN MIGUEL BREWERY owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0553, which indicates the company had a -0.0553% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. SAN MIGUEL BREWERY exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate SAN MIGUEL's Standard Deviation of 5.5, market risk adjusted performance of 1.56, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The firm has a beta of -0.3, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning SAN MIGUEL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, SAN MIGUEL is likely to outperform the market. At this point, SAN MIGUEL BREWERY has a negative expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to validate SAN MIGUEL's total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and potential upside , to decide if SAN MIGUEL BREWERY performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation
-0.27
Weak reverse predictability
SAN MIGUEL BREWERY has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between SAN MIGUEL time series from 15th of April 2024 to 28th of August 2024 and 28th of August 2024 to 10th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of SAN MIGUEL BREWERY price movement. The serial correlation of -0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current SAN MIGUEL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.27
Spearman Rank Test
-0.36
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
0.0
SAN MIGUEL BREWERY lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is SAN MIGUEL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting SAN MIGUEL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of SAN MIGUEL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that SAN MIGUEL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
SAN MIGUEL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If SAN MIGUEL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if SAN MIGUEL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in SAN MIGUEL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
SAN MIGUEL Lagged Returns
When evaluating SAN MIGUEL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of SAN MIGUEL stock have on its future price. SAN MIGUEL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, SAN MIGUEL autocorrelation shows the relationship between SAN MIGUEL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in SAN MIGUEL BREWERY.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
SAN MIGUEL financial ratios help investors to determine whether SAN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SAN with respect to the benefits of owning SAN MIGUEL security.