Medco Energi (Indonesia) Market Value
| MEDC Stock | IDR 1,125 45.00 3.85% |
| Symbol | Medco |
Medco Energi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Medco Energi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Medco Energi.
| 05/07/2023 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Medco Energi on May 7, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Medco Energi Internasional or generate 0.0% return on investment in Medco Energi over 570 days. Medco Energi is related to or competes with Vale Indonesia, Timah Persero, Perusahaan Gas, Bukit Asam, and Indosat Tbk. More
Medco Energi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Medco Energi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Medco Energi Internasional upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.69 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.05 |
Medco Energi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Medco Energi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Medco Energi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Medco Energi historical prices to predict the future Medco Energi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.49) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4761 |
Medco Energi Interna Backtested Returns
Medco Energi Interna has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0548, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0548% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Medco Energi exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Medco Energi's Standard Deviation of 2.41, mean deviation of 1.79, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.23, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Medco Energi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Medco Energi is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Medco Energi Interna has a negative expected return of -0.14%. Please make sure to verify Medco Energi's coefficient of variation, information ratio, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and jensen alpha , to decide if Medco Energi Interna performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.22 |
Weak reverse predictability
Medco Energi Internasional has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Medco Energi time series from 7th of May 2023 to 16th of February 2024 and 16th of February 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Medco Energi Interna price movement. The serial correlation of -0.22 indicates that over 22.0% of current Medco Energi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.22 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6737.5 |
Medco Energi Interna lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Medco Energi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Medco Energi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Medco Energi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Medco Energi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Medco Energi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Medco Energi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Medco Energi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Medco Energi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Medco Energi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Medco Energi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Medco Energi stock have on its future price. Medco Energi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Medco Energi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Medco Energi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Medco Energi Internasional.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Medco Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Medco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Medco with respect to the benefits of owning Medco Energi security.