MEGA METAL (Turkey) Market Value
| MEGMT Stock | 31.04 0.04 0.13% |
| Symbol | MEGA |
MEGA METAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MEGA METAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MEGA METAL.
| 06/02/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MEGA METAL on June 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MEGA METAL or generate 0.0% return on investment in MEGA METAL over 180 days.
MEGA METAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MEGA METAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MEGA METAL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.56 |
MEGA METAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MEGA METAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MEGA METAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MEGA METAL historical prices to predict the future MEGA METAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.46) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEGA METAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MEGA METAL Backtested Returns
MEGA METAL has Sharpe Ratio of -0.11, which conveys that the firm had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. MEGA METAL exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify MEGA METAL's risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Mean Deviation of 1.78 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.12, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, MEGA METAL's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding MEGA METAL is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, MEGA METAL has a negative expected return of -0.24%. Please make sure to verify MEGA METAL's maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and price action indicator , to decide if MEGA METAL performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.6 |
Good reverse predictability
MEGA METAL has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MEGA METAL time series from 2nd of June 2024 to 31st of August 2024 and 31st of August 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MEGA METAL price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current MEGA METAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.77 |
MEGA METAL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MEGA METAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MEGA METAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MEGA METAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MEGA METAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MEGA METAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MEGA METAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MEGA METAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MEGA METAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MEGA METAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating MEGA METAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MEGA METAL stock have on its future price. MEGA METAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MEGA METAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between MEGA METAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MEGA METAL.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |