Migros Ticaret (Turkey) Market Value
| MGROS Stock | TRY 486.25 3.00 0.62% |
| Symbol | Migros |
Migros Ticaret 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Migros Ticaret's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Migros Ticaret.
| 12/09/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Migros Ticaret on December 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Migros Ticaret AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Migros Ticaret over 360 days. Migros Ticaret is related to or competes with BIM Birlesik, Turkiye Sise, Turkiye Petrol, and Koc Holding. Migros Ticaret A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail sale of food and beverages, and consumer and ... More
Migros Ticaret Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Migros Ticaret's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Migros Ticaret AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.85 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.03 |
Migros Ticaret Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Migros Ticaret's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Migros Ticaret's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Migros Ticaret historical prices to predict the future Migros Ticaret's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0204 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0502 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Migros Ticaret's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Migros Ticaret AS Backtested Returns
Migros Ticaret AS has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0058, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0058% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Migros Ticaret exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Migros Ticaret's Mean Deviation of 1.76, risk adjusted performance of 0.0204, and Downside Deviation of 2.03 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.64, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Migros Ticaret's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Migros Ticaret is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Migros Ticaret AS has a negative expected return of -0.0139%. Please make sure to verify Migros Ticaret's sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and rate of daily change , to decide if Migros Ticaret AS performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.45 |
Modest reverse predictability
Migros Ticaret AS has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Migros Ticaret time series from 9th of December 2023 to 6th of June 2024 and 6th of June 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Migros Ticaret AS price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Migros Ticaret price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2206.15 |
Migros Ticaret AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Migros Ticaret stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Migros Ticaret's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Migros Ticaret returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Migros Ticaret has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Migros Ticaret regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Migros Ticaret stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Migros Ticaret stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Migros Ticaret stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Migros Ticaret Lagged Returns
When evaluating Migros Ticaret's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Migros Ticaret stock have on its future price. Migros Ticaret autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Migros Ticaret autocorrelation shows the relationship between Migros Ticaret stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Migros Ticaret AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Migros Stock
Migros Ticaret financial ratios help investors to determine whether Migros Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Migros with respect to the benefits of owning Migros Ticaret security.