Pelayaran Nelly (Indonesia) Market Value
| NELY Stock | IDR 458.00 6.00 1.29% |
| Symbol | Pelayaran |
Pelayaran Nelly 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pelayaran Nelly's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pelayaran Nelly.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pelayaran Nelly on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pelayaran Nelly Dwi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pelayaran Nelly over 540 days. Pelayaran Nelly is related to or competes with Trans Power, Pelita Samudera, Samudera Indonesia, Mitrabahtera Segara, and Provident Agro. More
Pelayaran Nelly Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pelayaran Nelly's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pelayaran Nelly Dwi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.72 |
Pelayaran Nelly Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pelayaran Nelly's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pelayaran Nelly's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pelayaran Nelly historical prices to predict the future Pelayaran Nelly's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Backtested Returns
Pelayaran Nelly Dwi maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0293, which implies the firm had a -0.0293% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Pelayaran Nelly Dwi exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Pelayaran Nelly's Variance of 0.7154, coefficient of variation of (8,747), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of 0.23, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Pelayaran Nelly's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Pelayaran Nelly is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Pelayaran Nelly Dwi has a negative expected return of -0.0245%. Please make sure to check Pelayaran Nelly's total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Pelayaran Nelly Dwi performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.88 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Pelayaran Nelly Dwi has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pelayaran Nelly time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pelayaran Nelly Dwi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current Pelayaran Nelly price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.88 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 329.16 |
Pelayaran Nelly Dwi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pelayaran Nelly stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pelayaran Nelly's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pelayaran Nelly returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pelayaran Nelly has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pelayaran Nelly regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pelayaran Nelly stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pelayaran Nelly stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pelayaran Nelly stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pelayaran Nelly Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pelayaran Nelly's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pelayaran Nelly stock have on its future price. Pelayaran Nelly autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pelayaran Nelly autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pelayaran Nelly stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pelayaran Nelly Dwi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Pelayaran Nelly financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pelayaran Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pelayaran with respect to the benefits of owning Pelayaran Nelly security.