Neste Oil (Finland) Market Value
| NESTE Stock | EUR 14.18 0.10 0.70% |
| Symbol | Neste |
Neste Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Neste Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Neste Oil.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Neste Oil on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Neste Oil Oyj or generate 0.0% return on investment in Neste Oil over 30 days. Neste Oil is related to or competes with Fortum Oyj, Sampo Oyj, Nordea Bank, UPM Kymmene, and KONE Oyj. Neste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countrie... More
Neste Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Neste Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Neste Oil Oyj upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.34 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.23 |
Neste Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Neste Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Neste Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Neste Oil historical prices to predict the future Neste Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.42) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.88) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.23 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Neste Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Neste Oil Oyj Backtested Returns
Neste Oil Oyj has Sharpe Ratio of -0.17, which conveys that the firm had a -0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Neste Oil exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Neste Oil's Mean Deviation of 2.17, risk adjusted performance of (0.11), and Standard Deviation of 2.79 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Neste Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Neste Oil is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Neste Oil Oyj has a negative expected return of -0.48%. Please make sure to verify Neste Oil's maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and price action indicator , to decide if Neste Oil Oyj performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.9 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Neste Oil Oyj has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Neste Oil time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Neste Oil Oyj price movement. The serial correlation of -0.9 indicates that approximately 90.0% of current Neste Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.9 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.18 |
Neste Oil Oyj lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Neste Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Neste Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Neste Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Neste Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Neste Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Neste Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Neste Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Neste Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Neste Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Neste Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Neste Oil stock have on its future price. Neste Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Neste Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Neste Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Neste Oil Oyj.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Neste Stock
Neste Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Neste Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Neste with respect to the benefits of owning Neste Oil security.