City Retail (Indonesia) Market Value
| NIRO Stock | IDR 135.00 1.00 0.75% |
| Symbol | City |
City Retail 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to City Retail's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of City Retail.
| 06/04/2023 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in City Retail on June 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding City Retail Developments or generate 0.0% return on investment in City Retail over 540 days. City Retail is related to or competes with Metropolitan Land, Bekasi Fajar, Greenwood Sejahtera, Metropolitan Kentjana, and Aksara Global. More
City Retail Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure City Retail's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess City Retail Developments upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.28) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.7463 |
City Retail Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for City Retail's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as City Retail's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use City Retail historical prices to predict the future City Retail's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3338 |
City Retail Developments Backtested Returns
City Retail Developments secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0819, which signifies that the company had a -0.0819% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. City Retail Developments exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm City Retail's Mean Deviation of 0.2938, standard deviation of 0.6566, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning City Retail are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, City Retail is likely to outperform the market. At this point, City Retail Developments has a negative expected return of -0.0546%. Please make sure to confirm City Retail's value at risk, skewness, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if City Retail Developments performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
City Retail Developments has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between City Retail time series from 4th of June 2023 to 29th of February 2024 and 29th of February 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of City Retail Developments price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current City Retail price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.48 |
City Retail Developments lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is City Retail stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting City Retail's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of City Retail returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that City Retail has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
City Retail regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If City Retail stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if City Retail stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in City Retail stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
City Retail Lagged Returns
When evaluating City Retail's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of City Retail stock have on its future price. City Retail autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, City Retail autocorrelation shows the relationship between City Retail stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in City Retail Developments.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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City Retail financial ratios help investors to determine whether City Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in City with respect to the benefits of owning City Retail security.