NATIONAL MICROFINANCE (Tanzania) Market Value
| NMB Stock | 5,850 250.00 4.46% |
| Symbol | NATIONAL |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE.
| 12/04/2024 |
| 02/02/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE on December 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK or generate 0.0% return on investment in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE over 60 days.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0853 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.67 | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9434 |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NATIONAL MICROFINANCE historical prices to predict the future NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1474 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1455 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0717 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.78) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Backtested Returns
At this point, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE is very steady. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has Sharpe Ratio of 0.15, which conveys that the company had a 0.15 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please verify NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's mean deviation of 0.3677, and Standard Deviation of 0.8755 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has a performance score of 12 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.03, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NATIONAL MICROFINANCE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE is likely to outperform the market. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE currently secures a risk of 0.88%. Please verify NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK maximum drawdown, kurtosis, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the skewness and accumulation distribution , to decide if NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.4 |
Poor reverse predictability
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NATIONAL MICROFINANCE time series from 4th of December 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 2nd of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current NATIONAL MICROFINANCE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 20.1 K |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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NATIONAL MICROFINANCE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Lagged Returns
When evaluating NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock have on its future price. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE autocorrelation shows the relationship between NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK.
Regressed Prices |
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