NATIONAL MICROFINANCE (Tanzania) Market Value
| NMB Stock | 5,350 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | NATIONAL |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK or generate 0.0% return on investment in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE over 540 days.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.40) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.81 |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NATIONAL MICROFINANCE historical prices to predict the future NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3416 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Backtested Returns
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0404, which conveys that the company had a -0.0404% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE exposes twenty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's mean deviation of 0.0834, and Standard Deviation of 0.3472 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0688, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NATIONAL MICROFINANCE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE is likely to outperform the market. At this point, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has a negative expected return of -0.0146%. Please make sure to verify NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's skewness, accumulation distribution, day median price, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and rate of daily change , to decide if NATIONAL MICROFINANCE performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NATIONAL MICROFINANCE time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current NATIONAL MICROFINANCE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.83 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 75.4 K |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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NATIONAL MICROFINANCE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Lagged Returns
When evaluating NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock have on its future price. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE autocorrelation shows the relationship between NATIONAL MICROFINANCE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK.
Regressed Prices |
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