Northern Government Fund Market Value
| NOUGX Fund | USD 8.82 0.03 0.34% |
| Symbol | Northern |
Northern 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Northern's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Northern.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Northern on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Northern Government Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Northern over 30 days. Northern is related to or competes with Northern Bond, Northern Core, Northern Arizona, Northern Emerging, Northern Fixed, Northern Income, and Northern International. The fund will invest at least 80 percent of its net assets in securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S More
Northern Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Northern's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Northern Government Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.51) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4525 |
Northern Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Northern's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Northern's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Northern historical prices to predict the future Northern's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3636 |
Northern Government Backtested Returns
Northern Government has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0699, which conveys that the entity had a -0.0699% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Northern exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Northern's Mean Deviation of 0.2159, risk adjusted performance of (0.06), and Standard Deviation of 0.3029 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0779, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Northern are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Northern is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.58 |
Good reverse predictability
Northern Government Fund has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Northern time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Northern Government price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Northern price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.49 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Northern Government lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Northern mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Northern's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Northern returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Northern has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Northern regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Northern mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Northern mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Northern mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Northern Lagged Returns
When evaluating Northern's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Northern mutual fund have on its future price. Northern autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Northern autocorrelation shows the relationship between Northern mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Northern Government Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Northern Mutual Fund
Northern financial ratios help investors to determine whether Northern Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Northern with respect to the benefits of owning Northern security.
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