Novartis (Mexico) Market Value

NVSN Stock  MXN 2,004  134.33  6.28%   
Novartis' market value is the price at which a share of Novartis trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Novartis AG investors about its performance. Novartis is trading at 2004.17 as of the 19th of December 2024; that is 6.28 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 2138.5.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Novartis AG and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Novartis over a given investment horizon. Check out Novartis Correlation, Novartis Volatility and Novartis Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novartis.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novartis 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novartis' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novartis.
0.00
11/19/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
12/19/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Novartis on November 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novartis AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novartis over 30 days. Novartis is related to or competes with Bank of Nova Scotia, UnitedHealth Group, Grupo Sports, Martin Marietta, Hoteles City, and CVS Health. Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwide More

Novartis Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novartis' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novartis AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Novartis Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novartis' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novartis' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novartis historical prices to predict the future Novartis' volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,0032,0042,005
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,8042,0622,063
Details

Novartis AG Backtested Returns

Novartis AG has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0949, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0949% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Novartis exposes twenty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Novartis' Mean Deviation of 0.3134, risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Standard Deviation of 0.9382 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.47, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Novartis' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Novartis is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Novartis AG has a negative expected return of -0.0927%. Please make sure to verify Novartis' daily balance of power, day median price, and the relationship between the kurtosis and rate of daily change , to decide if Novartis AG performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.33  

Below average predictability

Novartis AG has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novartis time series from 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024 and 4th of December 2024 to 19th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novartis AG price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Novartis price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.33
Spearman Rank Test-0.52
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance2887.13

Novartis AG lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Novartis stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novartis' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novartis returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novartis has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Novartis regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novartis stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novartis stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novartis stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Novartis Lagged Returns

When evaluating Novartis' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novartis stock have on its future price. Novartis autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novartis autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novartis stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novartis AG.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Additional Tools for Novartis Stock Analysis

When running Novartis' price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.