Oberweis Micro Cap Fund Market Value
| OBMCX Fund | USD 48.24 0.70 1.43% |
| Symbol | Oberweis |
Oberweis Micro-cap 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oberweis Micro-cap's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oberweis Micro-cap.
| 05/28/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oberweis Micro-cap on May 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oberweis Micro Cap Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oberweis Micro-cap over 180 days. Oberweis Micro-cap is related to or competes with Oberweis Emerging, Oberweis International, Needham Aggressive, and Kinetics Small. The fund invests, under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of its net assets in the securities of very small comp... More
Oberweis Micro-cap Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oberweis Micro-cap's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oberweis Micro Cap Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0273 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.01) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.56 |
Oberweis Micro-cap Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oberweis Micro-cap's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oberweis Micro-cap's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oberweis Micro-cap historical prices to predict the future Oberweis Micro-cap's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0941 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1464 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0294 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.34 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oberweis Micro-cap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oberweis Micro Cap Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Oberweis Mutual Fund to be very steady. Oberweis Micro Cap maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.11, which implies the entity had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Oberweis Micro Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Oberweis Micro-cap's Semi Deviation of 1.17, coefficient of variation of 858.4, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0941 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.12, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Oberweis Micro-cap's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Oberweis Micro-cap is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Oberweis Micro Cap Fund has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oberweis Micro-cap time series from 28th of May 2024 to 26th of August 2024 and 26th of August 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oberweis Micro Cap price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Oberweis Micro-cap price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.92 |
Oberweis Micro Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oberweis Micro-cap's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oberweis Micro-cap returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oberweis Micro-cap has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Oberweis Micro-cap regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Oberweis Micro-cap Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oberweis Micro-cap's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund have on its future price. Oberweis Micro-cap autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oberweis Micro-cap autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oberweis Micro-cap mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oberweis Micro Cap Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Oberweis Mutual Fund
Oberweis Micro-cap financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oberweis Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oberweis with respect to the benefits of owning Oberweis Micro-cap security.
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