1 Year (Pakistan) Market Value
| P01GIS090525 | 95.62 0.05 0.05% |
| Symbol | P01GIS090525 |
1 Year 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to 1 Year's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of 1 Year.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in 1 Year on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding 1 Year GIS or generate 0.0% return on investment in 1 Year over 30 days.
1 Year Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure 1 Year's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess 1 Year GIS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.45 | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2734 |
1 Year Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for 1 Year's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as 1 Year's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use 1 Year historical prices to predict the future 1 Year's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3169 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0967 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0582 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.75) |
1 Year GIS Backtested Returns
At this point, 1 Year is very steady. 1 Year GIS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 1.15, which signifies that the company had a 1.15% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty technical indicators for 1 Year GIS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm 1 Year's Mean Deviation of 0.1008, standard deviation of 0.231, and Variance of 0.0534 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. 1 Year has a performance score of 90 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0338, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning 1 Year are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, 1 Year is likely to outperform the market. 1 Year GIS today shows a risk of 0.09%. Please confirm 1 Year GIS information ratio, skewness, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if 1 Year GIS will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.98 |
Excellent predictability
1 Year GIS has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between 1 Year time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of 1 Year GIS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.98 indicates that 98.0% of current 1 Year price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.98 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 1.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
1 Year GIS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is 1 Year stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting 1 Year's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of 1 Year returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that 1 Year has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
1 Year regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If 1 Year stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if 1 Year stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in 1 Year stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
1 Year Lagged Returns
When evaluating 1 Year's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of 1 Year stock have on its future price. 1 Year autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, 1 Year autocorrelation shows the relationship between 1 Year stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in 1 Year GIS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with 1 Year
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if 1 Year position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in 1 Year will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to 1 Year could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace 1 Year when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back 1 Year - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling 1 Year GIS to buy it.
The correlation of 1 Year is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as 1 Year moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if 1 Year GIS moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for 1 Year can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.