Adams Natural Resources Fund Market Value
| PEO Fund | USD 23.82 0.07 0.29% |
| Symbol | Adams |
Adams Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adams Natural's fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adams Natural.
| 07/05/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adams Natural on July 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adams Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adams Natural over 510 days. Adams Natural is related to or competes with Liberty All, Tri Continental, Royce Value, Central Securities, Eaton Vance, General American, and Blackrock Muniyield. Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager More
Adams Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adams Natural's fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adams Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.65 |
Adams Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adams Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adams Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adams Natural historical prices to predict the future Adams Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0963 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0384 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1807 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adams Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adams Natural Resources Backtested Returns
As of now, Adams Fund is very steady. Adams Natural Resources secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the fund had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Adams Natural Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Adams Natural's mean deviation of 0.7209, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0963 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.62, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Adams Natural's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Adams Natural is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.06 |
Virtually no predictability
Adams Natural Resources has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adams Natural time series from 5th of July 2023 to 16th of March 2024 and 16th of March 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adams Natural Resources price movement. The serial correlation of 0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Adams Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.42 |
Adams Natural Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adams Natural fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adams Natural's fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adams Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adams Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adams Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adams Natural fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adams Natural fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adams Natural fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adams Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adams Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adams Natural fund have on its future price. Adams Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adams Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adams Natural fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adams Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Adams Natural
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adams Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adams Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Adams Fund
Moving against Adams Fund
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adams Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adams Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adams Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adams Natural Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Adams Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adams Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adams Natural Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adams Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Adams Fund
Adams Natural financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adams Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adams with respect to the benefits of owning Adams Natural security.
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