The Gold Bullion Fund Market Value
| QGLCX Fund | USD 25.49 0.05 0.20% |
| Symbol | The |
The Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to The Gold's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of The Gold.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in The Gold on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Gold Bullion or generate 0.0% return on investment in The Gold over 30 days. The Gold is related to or competes with Jennison Natural, Dreyfus Natural, Energy Services, Goldman Sachs, Hennessy, and Icon Natural. The fund will invest primarily in Gold bullion-related exchange-traded funds exchange-traded notes exchange-traded futur... More
The Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure The Gold's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Gold Bullion upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.49 |
The Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for The Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as The Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use The Gold historical prices to predict the future The Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0497 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0426 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6785 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gold Bullion Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider The Mutual Fund to be very steady. Gold Bullion owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0774, which indicates the fund had a 0.0774% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for The Gold Bullion, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate The Gold's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0497, coefficient of variation of 1615.57, and Semi Deviation of 1.02 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0776%. The entity has a beta of 0.0756, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, the Gold's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding the Gold is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.51 |
Good reverse predictability
The Gold Bullion has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between The Gold time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gold Bullion price movement. The serial correlation of -0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current The Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Gold Bullion lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is The Gold mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting The Gold's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of The Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that The Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
The Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If The Gold mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if The Gold mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in The Gold mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
The Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating The Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of The Gold mutual fund have on its future price. The Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, The Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between The Gold mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Gold Bullion.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in The Mutual Fund
The Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether The Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in The with respect to the benefits of owning The Gold security.
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