Global Sukses (Indonesia) Market Value
| RUNS Stock | 75.00 3.00 4.17% |
| Symbol | Global |
Global Sukses 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Global Sukses' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Global Sukses.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Global Sukses on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Global Sukses Solusi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Global Sukses over 60 days. Global Sukses is related to or competes with Trimegah Karya, Surya Biru, Indo Oil, Wira Global, and Prima Andalan. More
Global Sukses Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Global Sukses' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Global Sukses Solusi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1023 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.09 |
Global Sukses Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Global Sukses' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Global Sukses' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Global Sukses historical prices to predict the future Global Sukses' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1093 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5615 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1128 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.54) |
Global Sukses Solusi Backtested Returns
Global Sukses appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Global Sukses Solusi holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.16, which attests that the entity had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Global Sukses' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.67% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Global Sukses' Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (4.53), downside deviation of 3.83, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1093 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Global Sukses holds a performance score of 12. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.12, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Global Sukses are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Global Sukses is likely to outperform the market. Please check Global Sukses' total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Global Sukses' current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
Global Sukses Solusi has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Global Sukses time series from 29th of September 2024 to 29th of October 2024 and 29th of October 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Global Sukses Solusi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Global Sukses price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.36 |
Global Sukses Solusi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Global Sukses stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Global Sukses' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Global Sukses returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Global Sukses has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Global Sukses regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Global Sukses stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Global Sukses stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Global Sukses stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Global Sukses Lagged Returns
When evaluating Global Sukses' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Global Sukses stock have on its future price. Global Sukses autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Global Sukses autocorrelation shows the relationship between Global Sukses stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Global Sukses Solusi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Global Sukses financial ratios help investors to determine whether Global Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Global with respect to the benefits of owning Global Sukses security.