Ryanair Holdings (Ireland) Market Value
| RYA Stock | 18.24 0.25 1.35% |
| Symbol | Ryanair |
Ryanair Holdings 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ryanair Holdings' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ryanair Holdings.
| 11/28/2023 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ryanair Holdings on November 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ryanair Holdings plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ryanair Holdings over 360 days. Ryanair Holdings is related to or competes with Bank of Ireland, AIB Group, Kingspan Group, Dalata Hotel, Uniphar Group, and Origin Enterprises. More
Ryanair Holdings Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ryanair Holdings' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ryanair Holdings plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1283 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.11 |
Ryanair Holdings Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ryanair Holdings' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ryanair Holdings' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ryanair Holdings historical prices to predict the future Ryanair Holdings' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1533 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2744 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0959 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1688 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7972 |
Ryanair Holdings plc Backtested Returns
Ryanair Holdings appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Ryanair Holdings plc maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.18, which implies the firm had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Ryanair Holdings plc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Ryanair Holdings' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1533, semi deviation of 1.0, and Coefficient Of Variation of 515.73 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ryanair Holdings holds a performance score of 14. The company holds a Beta of 0.39, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ryanair Holdings' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ryanair Holdings is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Ryanair Holdings' total risk alpha, value at risk, and the relationship between the standard deviation and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Ryanair Holdings' historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.48 |
Modest reverse predictability
Ryanair Holdings plc has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ryanair Holdings time series from 28th of November 2023 to 26th of May 2024 and 26th of May 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ryanair Holdings plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Ryanair Holdings price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.57 |
Ryanair Holdings plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ryanair Holdings stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ryanair Holdings' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ryanair Holdings returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ryanair Holdings has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ryanair Holdings regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ryanair Holdings stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ryanair Holdings stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ryanair Holdings stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ryanair Holdings Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ryanair Holdings' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ryanair Holdings stock have on its future price. Ryanair Holdings autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ryanair Holdings autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ryanair Holdings stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ryanair Holdings plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Ryanair Holdings
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ryanair Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ryanair Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Ryanair Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ryanair Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ryanair Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ryanair Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ryanair Holdings plc to buy it.
The correlation of Ryanair Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ryanair Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ryanair Holdings plc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ryanair Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Ryanair Stock Analysis
When running Ryanair Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Ryanair Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ryanair Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Ryanair Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ryanair Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ryanair Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ryanair Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.