Swan Defined Risk Fund Market Value
| SDFCX Fund | USD 8.77 0.02 0.23% |
| Symbol | Swan |
Swan Defined 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Swan Defined's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Swan Defined.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Swan Defined on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Swan Defined Risk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Swan Defined over 30 days. Swan Defined is related to or competes with Calvert Global, World Energy, Jennison Natural, Fidelity Advisor, Oil Gas, and Hennessy. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing directly, or indirectly through ETFs, in foreign equity ... More
Swan Defined Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Swan Defined's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Swan Defined Risk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.24) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.1 |
Swan Defined Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Swan Defined's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Swan Defined's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Swan Defined historical prices to predict the future Swan Defined's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.86) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swan Defined's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Swan Defined Risk Backtested Returns
Swan Defined Risk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0542, which indicates the fund had a -0.0542% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Swan Defined Risk exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Swan Defined's Variance of 0.4553, coefficient of variation of (1,825), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0548, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Swan Defined's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Swan Defined is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.21 |
Weak predictability
Swan Defined Risk has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Swan Defined time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Swan Defined Risk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Swan Defined price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Swan Defined Risk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Swan Defined mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Swan Defined's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Swan Defined returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Swan Defined has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Swan Defined regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Swan Defined mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Swan Defined mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Swan Defined mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Swan Defined Lagged Returns
When evaluating Swan Defined's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Swan Defined mutual fund have on its future price. Swan Defined autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Swan Defined autocorrelation shows the relationship between Swan Defined mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Swan Defined Risk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Swan Mutual Fund
Swan Defined financial ratios help investors to determine whether Swan Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Swan with respect to the benefits of owning Swan Defined security.
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