PT Sinergi (Indonesia) Market Value
| SMLE Stock | 140.00 4.00 2.78% |
| Symbol | SMLE |
PT Sinergi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Sinergi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Sinergi.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Sinergi on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Sinergi Multi or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Sinergi over 30 days.
PT Sinergi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Sinergi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Sinergi Multi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.02 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2179 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 47.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.07) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.23 |
PT Sinergi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Sinergi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Sinergi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Sinergi historical prices to predict the future PT Sinergi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1851 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.35 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.696 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2536 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 10.09 |
PT Sinergi Multi Backtested Returns
PT Sinergi is very steady given 3 months investment horizon. PT Sinergi Multi retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.23, which implies the firm had a 0.23% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. We were able to collect data for twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.39% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use PT Sinergi Multi standard deviation of 5.84, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 10.1 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. PT Sinergi holds a performance score of 18 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.13, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, PT Sinergi's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PT Sinergi is expected to be smaller as well. Use PT Sinergi Multi semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to analyze future returns on PT Sinergi Multi.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
PT Sinergi Multi has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Sinergi time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Sinergi Multi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current PT Sinergi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 53.14 |
PT Sinergi Multi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Sinergi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Sinergi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Sinergi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Sinergi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Sinergi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Sinergi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Sinergi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Sinergi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Sinergi Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Sinergi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Sinergi stock have on its future price. PT Sinergi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Sinergi autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Sinergi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Sinergi Multi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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