Selamat Sempurna (Indonesia) Market Value
| SMSM Stock | IDR 1,895 25.00 1.34% |
| Symbol | Selamat |
Selamat Sempurna 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Selamat Sempurna's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Selamat Sempurna.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Selamat Sempurna on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Selamat Sempurna Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Selamat Sempurna over 30 days. Selamat Sempurna is related to or competes with Surya Citra, Astra Otoparts, Ultra Jaya, Ramayana Lestari, and Surya Semesta. More
Selamat Sempurna Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Selamat Sempurna's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Selamat Sempurna Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.94 |
Selamat Sempurna Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Selamat Sempurna's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Selamat Sempurna's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Selamat Sempurna historical prices to predict the future Selamat Sempurna's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0229 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0618 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.25) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.12) |
Selamat Sempurna Tbk Backtested Returns
Selamat Sempurna Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0064, which indicates the firm had a -0.0064% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Selamat Sempurna Tbk exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Selamat Sempurna's Semi Deviation of 1.62, coefficient of variation of 4480.13, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0229 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.26, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Selamat Sempurna are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Selamat Sempurna is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Selamat Sempurna Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0116%. Please make sure to validate Selamat Sempurna's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Selamat Sempurna Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.13 |
Insignificant predictability
Selamat Sempurna Tbk has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Selamat Sempurna time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Selamat Sempurna Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.13 indicates that less than 13.0% of current Selamat Sempurna price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.13 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 330.99 |
Selamat Sempurna Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Selamat Sempurna stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Selamat Sempurna's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Selamat Sempurna returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Selamat Sempurna has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Selamat Sempurna regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Selamat Sempurna stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Selamat Sempurna stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Selamat Sempurna stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Selamat Sempurna Lagged Returns
When evaluating Selamat Sempurna's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Selamat Sempurna stock have on its future price. Selamat Sempurna autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Selamat Sempurna autocorrelation shows the relationship between Selamat Sempurna stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Selamat Sempurna Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Selamat Sempurna financial ratios help investors to determine whether Selamat Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Selamat with respect to the benefits of owning Selamat Sempurna security.